With our national unemployment rate at 10.2 percent and the broader measure of unemployed and under-employed’s at 17 percent, it’s not easy being optimistic about the future. Throw-in global warming, a continuing global banking crisis, two wars (with just USA involvement) and the collapse of both the Niners and Raiders and having a positive outlook begins to look ridiculous. When the good news is “Home prices only declined 10% in October” and “The H1N1 vaccine seems to work” it’s easy to slip into depression. But, I am not depressed and see only clear sailing ahead. I’ve been feeling this way since February when I learned my son and daughter-in-law were going to have their third child. I’m feeling even better as Claire Elizabeth Williams was born at 1:30 a.m. today! The future is bright for baby Claire, and her sister and brother. My son and daughter-in-law must be optimistic people. They must believe there is a bright future for their children; a future with educational opportunities, meaningful jobs and a place to raise a family. Many of us felt that way when we started our families, and most of us still believe in a bright future.
While it is possible that we could experience another economic aftershock in the next year or so, it is more probable that we are at the beginning of an economic expansion. We have already seen an increase in hiring in the third quarter over the first half of 2009. We expect hiring to continue to grow in 2010. I’ve read forecasts that housing prices are close to the bottom, but could drop another ten percent over the next year. While this seems to be bad news, it is much better than it has been. Interest rates are also expected to stay low throughout 2010. Here in the Bay Area, we have many reasons to be optimistic: we live in California, the best place to live I’ve ever seen; we have a strong innovative workforce; we have great colleges and universities; and we have growing “industries” that lead the world in all tech areas; and we have the attitude and skills to work our way out of any difficulty. We are all blessed to live and work in the Bay Area.
So, we have a number of good reasons for be optimistic about 2010. For you long-term thinkers (my son Karl, for example), 2031 will be a great year to graduate from college, and I hope to be around to attend Claire’s graduation! Please accept my best wishes for a wonderful Holiday season and a great 2010.